Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 100100Z – 101200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

…01z Update…

No changes are warranted to the 20z outlook. Earlier thoughts
regarding the evolution of convection tonight remain. Low-level warm
advection is currently responsible for a rash of elevated
thunderstorms from southeast OK – western AR – southeast MO. This
activity is likely driven by eastern branch of LLJ that is oriented
from northeast TX into the OH Valley. Later tonight, in response to
the approaching trough, a secondary branch of LLJ should strengthen
across northwest TX into southwestern OK. Thunderstorm potential
will increase along the nose of this feature toward sunrise.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are expected near the
international border within the base of the digging trough. At this
time it appears the threat of severe will increase after the day1
period.

..Darrow.. 01/10/2020

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