Valid 092000Z – 101200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
No change was made to the previous convective outlook. Time-lagged
HRRR continues to indicate a possible hail risk from far northeast
TX into far southeast OK and western AR. Uncertainty in storm
coverage/intensity at this time precludes a Marginal Risk.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2020/
…Northeast TX into Western AR…
A large upper trough covers most of the western and central US
today, with a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward along
the CA coast. Strengthening southerly low-level winds over the
southern Plains are helping to transport Gulf moisture northward,
with 60s dewpoints now as far north as Dallas. A few thunderstorms
are expected to form this evening and overnight in the low-level
warm advection regime extending from northeast TX and southeast OK
into parts of AR/MO/IL. These storms will be elevated and in an
environment of modest CAPE. Forecast soundings suggest there is a
zone along the low-level jet from northeast TX into western AR where
parameters would be conditionally favorable for hail tonight.
However, only a small minority of 12z CAM solutions suggest
thunderstorms will form in this corridor of hail potential, so will
not include a MRGL risk area at this time but defer to later