Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 091630Z – 101200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

…Northeast TX into Western AR…
A large upper trough covers most of the western and central US
today, with a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward along
the CA coast. Strengthening southerly low-level winds over the
southern Plains are helping to transport Gulf moisture northward,
with 60s dewpoints now as far north as Dallas. A few thunderstorms
are expected to form this evening and overnight in the low-level
warm advection regime extending from northeast TX and southeast OK
into parts of AR/MO/IL. These storms will be elevated and in an
environment of modest CAPE. Forecast soundings suggest there is a
zone along the low-level jet from northeast TX into western AR where
parameters would be conditionally favorable for hail tonight.
However, only a small minority of 12z CAM solutions suggest
thunderstorms will form in this corridor of hail potential, so will
not include a MRGL risk area at this time but defer to later
updates.

..Hart/Dial.. 01/09/2020

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