Valid 091300Z – 101200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
…Red River Valley to the Midwest…
Weak mid-level ridging will dominate the region with broad low-level
warm advection being the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development. Shallow convection will gradually deepen
this evening as weak elevated buoyancy slowly increases via moist
advection from central/eastern TX north-northeast across the Mid-MS
Valley. A pronounced elevated mixed-layer should largely preclude
storm development south of the Red River. To the north of the EML,
isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should form along a
corridor from eastern OK/western AR towards IL/IN into the
overnight. Small hail is possible across the southern portion of the
thunder area given adequate effective shear. However, the lack of
greater MUCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent suggest a severe hail
highlight is unwarranted.
Near 12Z Friday, large-scale forcing for ascent will begin to
impinge on the western periphery of the elevated buoyancy plume
across northwest TX into southwest OK. There is some indication that
convection may develop by the end of the period in this region;
however, greater probabilities for deep convection will be on D2.
A few lightning flashes may develop this evening as mid-levels cool
and lapse rates steepen within a digging shortwave trough.