Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061630Z – 071200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous United States
today.

…Discussion…
A progressive/relatively low-amplitude large-scale flow regime will
prevail over the CONUS through tonight, although some amplification
will occur as a shortwave trough continues east-southeastward from
the central Plains to the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians tonight
and early Tuesday.

In response, a surface low will deepen tonight as it develops
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee
Valley in conjunction with a sharpening cold front. Near the
low/front, convection should develop/increase late tonight across
the Tennessee Valley including northern Alabama and Middle/eastern
Tennessee to northern Georgia. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be
entirely ruled out, most forecast soundings suggest that this
elevated convection will be shallow within a non-lightning-conducive
thermodynamic profile.

..Guyer.. 01/06/2020

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