Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061300Z – 071200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous United States
today.

…Synopsis and Discussion…
Primarily cool and/or stable conditions will prevail across the
CONUS today, with high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to
the Gulf of Mexico. A minor exception to this may be over parts of
TN and KY tonight as a strong upper trough moves toward the OH
Valley. While the low-level air mass will remain stable, strong
cooling aloft as well as lift near a weak surface low from northeast
MS into eastern TN will result in precipitation, possibly containing
elevated convective elements. A tight midlevel temperature gradient
will exist over TN, thus shallow convection to the south will be
incapable of producing lightning. Farther north into KY, forecast
soundings show MUCAPE values up to 50 J/kg with parcels originating
above 700 mb. While a lightning flash cannot be ruled out in this
area, thunderstorms are generally unlikely.

..Jewell.. 01/06/2020

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