Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151200Z – 161200Z


Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central
Great Plains today. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are
forecast with the stronger storms.

…Central and northern Great Plains…
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern MT
this morning to the mid-upper MS Valley by daybreak Friday. A weak
area of low pressure will develop over western KS while a cold front
moves southeastward across the western Dakotas during the day. An
elevated cluster of thunderstorms is possible over the central Great
Plains associated with a warm advection regime before this activity
weakens by the late morning. Considerable uncertainty is apparent
and partially attributed to the evolution of storms during the
morning. An outflow boundary associated with this early day
convection may serve as a focus for additional storms by late
afternoon from NE into northern KS. Elongated hodographs would
favor supercells with large to very large hail. Isolated storms are
forecast farther southwest into southern KS into the TX Panhandle
with a wind/hail risk with the sustained/strong storms.

Farther north over the Dakotas and Wyoming into western NE, diurnal
storms are forecast to develop along the front over the Dakotas and
in a post-frontal area over WY. Hail/wind are possible with this

…Upper Ohio Valley…
At the surface, a front will advance eastward across upper Ohio
Valley with moderate destabilization expected by afternoon.
Although lapse rates are not expected to be that steep, forecast
soundings do show 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. A
few marginally severe storms may develop in the late afternoon with
potential for strong wind gusts and hail.

…Coastal Carolinas…
Weak mid-level troughing will slowly move east across the southern
Appalachians. A cold front and a sea breeze front will serve as
foci for thunderstorm development during the midday through the
early evening. A reservoir of rich low-level moisture (low-middle
70s dewpoints) will remain over the coastal plain and combine with
strong heating to yield moderate destabilization. Strong gusts
(45-55mph, locally higher) occurring in pockets associated with wet
microbursts will be capable of isolated wind damage. Storms will
weaken by the early evening and dissipate soon after sunset.

..Smith/Cook.. 08/15/2019


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