Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 041200Z – 051200Z


Severe storms are not expected on Saturday.


Large-scale pattern will not be favorable for organized severe
thunderstorms during the day1 period; however, some thunder
potential will exist across the Southeast and along the Pacific
Northwest coast.

Intense large-scale height falls are forecast to spread across the
southern Appalachians into the southern Middle Atlantic during the
latter half of the period. These falls will be induced ahead of a
pronounced short-wave trough that will dig toward the Atlantic coast
by 05/06z. In response to this feature, a surface front will move
steadily south across the FL Peninsula by early evening. With the
primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to remain north of
FL, weak low-level convergence along the wind shift is not expected
to prove particularly favorable for organized convection. Latest
CAMs support this with broken, weak convection along the wind shift
as it surges across the Peninsula.

Across the Pacific Northwest, moist onshore flow, combined with
steep surface-3km lapse rates, will remain favorable for scattered
showers that should develop offshore then spread toward the Pacific
coast. Much of this activity will remain lightning-free. However, an
isolated lightning flash can not be ruled out, and for these reasons
will maintain 10% thunder probability near the coast.

..Darrow.. 01/04/2020


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