Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 032000Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible across
parts of the Southeast into this evening.

…20Z Update…

…Portions of the Southeast States…
Recent surface analysis places composite outflow/front from central
NC southwestward into the far western FL Panhandle. Conditions ahead
of this boundary are characterized by temperatures in mid to upper
70s and dewpoints mid to upper 60s. Some isolated 70 deg F dewpoints
exist across the central FL Panhandle and adjacent portions of far
southeast AL and southwest GA. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
aloft is present over the region but warm mid-level temperatures and
resulting poor lapse rates are tempering instability. This lack of
strong instability is still expected to limit the severe
thunderstorm risk with only a low-probability risk for a few strong
wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 01/03/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2020/

…Discussion…
Anticyclonic flow aloft persists across the Southeast, ahead of the
phased northern- and southern-stream troughs shifting eastward
across the central third of the country. This background
anticyclonic flow, and associated subsidence aloft, has maintained
weak mid-level lapse rates — and thus will continue to yield very
weak CAPE across the region (despite local/modest diurnal heating
ahead of the front, and 60s to low 70s dewpoints spreading gradually
northeastward south of a Carolinas warm front).

The relative lack of CAPE should continue to substantially suppress
severe risk across the area, despite an otherwise favorable
pre-frontal kinematic environment featuring weakly
veering/strengthening flow with height. The resulting shear
supports maintaining MRGL risk, including low-probability risk for a
few strong wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado — with storms
occurring near and ahead of the composite outflow crossing southeast
Alabama, and the warm frontal extension continuing east-northeast
across central portions of Georgia and South Carolina, and into
eastern North Carolina into early evening.

$$

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