Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031630Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible across
parts of the Southeast into this evening.

…Discussion…
Anticyclonic flow aloft persists across the Southeast, ahead of the
phased northern- and southern-stream troughs shifting eastward
across the central third of the country. This background
anticyclonic flow, and associated subsidence aloft, has maintained
weak mid-level lapse rates — and thus will continue to yield very
weak CAPE across the region (despite local/modest diurnal heating
ahead of the front, and 60s to low 70s dewpoints spreading gradually
northeastward south of a Carolinas warm front).

The relative lack of CAPE should continue to substantially suppress
severe risk across the area, despite an otherwise favorable
pre-frontal kinematic environment featuring weakly
veering/strengthening flow with height. The resulting shear
supports maintaining MRGL risk, including low-probability risk for a
few strong wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado — with storms
occurring near and ahead of the composite outflow crossing southeast
Alabama, and the warm frontal extension continuing east-northeast
across central portions of Georgia and South Carolina, and into
eastern North Carolina into early evening.

..Goss/Karstens.. 01/03/2020

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