Valid 031300Z – 041200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FL PANHANDLE TO
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado will be possible across
parts of the Southeast States through early evening.
Primary change is to expand Marginal Risk into central SC.
Well downstream of a broad positive-tilt upper trough over TX, a
leading composite outflow/cold front extends from east-central AL to
Mobile Bay. Ahead of this boundary, rich low-level moisture
characterized by surface dew points near 70 F extends as far
northeast as southeast AL and southwest GA, and this moisture should
spread towards the Savannah River through the afternoon. Despite
surface temperatures warming into/through the 70s, relatively warm
upper-level temperatures as sampled by area 12Z soundings should
yield thin MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg northeast of the FL Panhandle.
With deep-layer flow nearly paralleling the orientation of the
front, updraft undercutting is anticipated to persist with ongoing
convection along the front, yielding a continued cluster mode.
Nevertheless, 50-60 kt effective shear may support small-scale bows
that will yield a risk for isolated damaging winds, mainly through