Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031200Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ALABAMA…THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts may impact parts of
eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle today.

…Southeast…
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today as southwest mid-level flow becomes established across the
Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley as a surface trough moves
eastward across the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida Panhandle.
Isolated thunderstorm may be ongoing near the surface trough this
morning with some increase in thunderstorm coverage by early
afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s combined
warming surface temperatures will result in weak destabilization
ahead of the surface trough by midday. This combined with 60 to 70
kt of 0-6 km shear should be sufficient for a marginal severe
threat. As the convective line moves eastward across the region, the
stronger segments within the line could produce isolated damaging
wind gusts. The threat should be highest in the afternoon when
instability will be maximized.

..Broyles/Cook.. 01/03/2020

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