Valid 030100Z – 031200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION…
A marginal wind damage threat may continue this evening into tonight
across parts of the central Gulf Coast region.
…Central Gulf Coast…
The latest water vapor shows an anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern
across the Southeast with southwest flow located over much of the
southern Plains. A line of thunderstorms is ongoing in a plume of
mid-level moisture from southern Louisiana into central Mississippi.
Surface dewpoints to the east of the convective line are near 70 F
which should result in enough instability to maintain the line this
evening and possibly into the overnight period. As the line moves
slowly eastward and interacts with the western edge of a 40 to 50 kt
low-level jet, there should be enough shear for an isolated wind
damage threat. The potential for strong wind gusts may impact
southern Mississippi and western Alabama later tonight. But
instability will remain very weak and the convection should remain
mostly on the cool-side of the boundary, suggesting that any threat
that persists will be marginal.