Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 011200Z – 021200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies today. A few thunderstorms might also
occur from south through eastern Texas into western Louisiana
Wednesday night. No severe weather is expected.

…Northwestern US/Northern Rockies…

Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the western US
later today as a pronounced 500mb jet digs across Oregon, through
NV, into the lower Colorado River Valley by sunrise Thursday. Very
steep lapse rates will be noted north-east of the digging jet as
500mb temperatures approach -30C. Large-scale ascent within exit
region of the aforementioned jet should aid mid-level moistening
such that weak elevated instability will become increasingly
supportive of convection. While profiles will be rather cold, it
appears adequate buoyancy will exist for at least some potential for
lightning within the strongest convection.


Strong low-latitude jet is forecast to extend across Mexico into TX
ahead of a strong upper trough. This feature should begin to eject
east in response to western US digging speed max. Downstream, models
suggest low-level warm advection will increase along the TX coast as
LLJ strengthens then lifts into LA. While a coastal boundary should
struggle to move inland during the day1 period, a few elevated
thunderstorms are expected north of the wind shift as mid-levels
moisten amidst steepening lapse rates.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 01/01/2020


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