Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 312000Z – 011200Z


A few thunderstorms may occur later tonight over the Pacific
Northwest region, but severe weather is not expected.


No changes to previous forecast have been made for this update.

..Dial.. 12/31/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/

…1630Z Update…
Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Surface high
pressure and associated dry/cool low-level conditions dominating
much of the central and southern CONUS will promote stable
tropospheric profiles, amidst large-scale descent, suppressing deep,
moist convection in most areas. The best chance for a few lightning
flashes will be across the coastal Pacific Northwest, where smaller
mid-level impulses, pivoting along the rear of a longer-wave
mid-level trough, will advect steeper mid-level lapse rates atop a
moist, maritime airmass, promoting marginal elevated buoyancy. A
flash or two are possible this afternoon, with the greater
likelihood of a few flashes occurring overnight. Eastward advection
of the aforementioned mid-level lapse rate plume may also support a
flash or two across the inter-mountain Northwest toward the end of
the period.


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