Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 311630Z – 011200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today nor tonight.

…1630Z Update…
Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Surface high
pressure and associated dry/cool low-level conditions dominating
much of the central and southern CONUS will promote stable
tropospheric profiles, amidst large-scale descent, suppressing deep,
moist convection in most areas. The best chance for a few lightning
flashes will be across the coastal Pacific Northwest, where smaller
mid-level impulses, pivoting along the rear of a longer-wave
mid-level trough, will advect steeper mid-level lapse rates atop a
moist, maritime airmass, promoting marginal elevated buoyancy. A
flash or two are possible this afternoon, with the greater
likelihood of a few flashes occurring overnight. Eastward advection
of the aforementioned mid-level lapse rate plume may also support a
flash or two across the inter-mountain Northwest toward the end of
the period.

..Squitieri.. 12/31/2019

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