Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 302000Z – 311200Z


An isolated thunderstorm or two may impact portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions this afternoon and

…20Z Update…

…Mid Atlantic Region…Southern New England…
Strong forcing for ascent will persist across portions of the
northern Mid-Atlantic through southern coastal New England over the
next few hours and a few lightning strikes are possible in this

Farther south, mid-level dry air continues to spread into the
region, limiting instability and precluding the development of deep
convection. Consequently, the Marginal risk area was removed.

..Mosier.. 12/30/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/

…Mid Atlantic Region…
A powerful upper trough has become negatively-tilted and is
affecting parts of the northeast US. A small wedge of marginally
unstable air persists over parts of eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ
where dewpoints remain in the lower 60s. This air mass will be
removed through the early afternoon as a cold front sweeps across
the area, ending the risk from west to east. Very few 12z CAM
solutions develop storms along the front, so confidence in severe
storms has also decreased. Nevertheless, vertical shear is quite
strong and a conditional potential for damaging wind gusts or a
brief tornado will exist with any storms that can form/persist in
this environment. Current indications are that the threat will move
offshore before 22z.


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