Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 301630Z – 311200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION…

…SUMMARY…
An isolated strong thunderstorm or two may impact a small part of
the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, with a risk of gusty winds
or perhaps a tornado.

…Mid Atlantic Region…
A powerful upper trough has become negatively-tilted and is
affecting parts of the northeast US. A small wedge of marginally
unstable air persists over parts of eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ
where dewpoints remain in the lower 60s. This air mass will be
removed through the early afternoon as a cold front sweeps across
the area, ending the risk from west to east. Very few 12z CAM
solutions develop storms along the front, so confidence in severe
storms has also decreased. Nevertheless, vertical shear is quite
strong and a conditional potential for damaging wind gusts or a
brief tornado will exist with any storms that can form/persist in
this environment. Current indications are that the threat will move
offshore before 22z.

..Hart/Broyles.. 12/30/2019

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