Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 300100Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI…

…SUMMARY…
A few severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across parts of
the mid South, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and central
Gulf Coast states. Locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two are
remain possible.

…Discussion…
A gradual decrease in storm intensity — and thus severe risk —
continues at this time across the Tennessee Valley area south along
the Mississippi/Alabama border vicinity. A continuous line of
convection — with embedded thunderstorms — extends from southern
Middle Tennessee to eastern Louisiana, and continues moving quickly
eastward. The strongest storms are moving across the Slight Risk
area — mainly across west-central and northwestern Alabama, where
around 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated, within a very
favorable kinematic environment.

As weak nocturnal cooling continues across the pre-frontal warm
sector, a continued, gradual decrease in convective intensity will
continue overall. Still, given the strength of flow aloft, some
severe risk may linger into the overnight hours, as storms shift
eastward toward, and eventually across, the southern Appalachians
region through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 12/30/2019

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