Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 290100Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
SOUTH TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…AND EASTWARD TO THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA…

…SUMMARY…
Strong storms — with brief/local severe risk — will continue
across parts of the Missouri/Arkansas vicinity tonight.

…Discussion…
A forced, narrow band of frontal convection is ongoing at this time
from western Missouri southward to northeastern Texas. Lightning
trends have been decidedly downward within this band over the past
several hours, with no new flashes observed over the past half hour.
This trend is reflective of the thermodynamic characteristics of
the pre-frontal warm sector, and confirms the latest model forecasts
and objective analyses, indicating minimal CAPE at best.

With that said, shear remains quite strong across the region, and as
such, a briefly stronger updraft or line segment — capable of
producing strong wind gusts or a brief tornado — will remain
possible into the overnight hours. Therefore, while the SLGT risk
area is being removed, MRGL severe risk will be maintained across
this area.

Farther south, across southeast Texas, latest indications continue
to suggest a convective increase during the last few hours of the
period. However, it currently appears that this convection will be
anafrontal, elevated atop a stable boundary layer behind the front.
With most-unstable CAPE expected to be minimal, hail reaching severe
levels appears unlikely, and with a currently anticipated lack of
surface-based convection along or ahead of the front, the MRGL/5%
risk area is being removed at this time.

..Goss.. 12/29/2019

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