Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 282000Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS REGION…

…SUMMARY…
Strong to severe storms are possible across parts of eastern
Oklahoma/Kansas and western Missouri/Arkansas this afternoon and
tonight, and possibly across parts of southeast Texas tonight.

…20Z Update…
The Southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity Slight Risk appears on track
with continued expectations of a gradual increase in storm
organization/intensity through late afternoon/early evening; see
prior outlook discussion below. Considerable pre-frontal cloud cover
and weak buoyancy will tend to limit the overall magnitude of
today’s severe risk.

Primary 20Z change was to introduce low severe probabilities for the
possibility of a few strong/locally severe storms late tonight/early
Sunday across southeast Texas as the cold front moves into the
region.

..Guyer.. 12/28/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/

…KS/OK/MO/LA/TX…
A vigorous shortwave trough is rotating across NM and west TX this
morning, with substantial large-scale forcing overspreading western
and central TX. A line of low-topped and fast-moving thunderstorms
has developed in this zone, and is expected to persist through the
afternoon and affect the MRGL/SLGT risk area. Low-level moisture
and buoyancy are limited today throughout the region, likely
limiting the updraft strength in most storms. However, the evolving
linear nature of the line, very strong near-surface shear, midlevel
winds of 90 knots, and strong large-scale forcing all pose a risk
of damaging wind gusts as the storms track eastward. Therefore have
expanded the risk areas over this region. As the shallow line of
storms matures over northeastern OK into northwest AR and western
MO, the risk of embedded QLCS spin ups will also increase.

…Southeast TX late tonight…
A secondary shortwave trough will approach south TX late tonight,
with a consensus of 12z guidance showing thunderstorm development
along the middle TX Gulf coast. There was consideration of adding a
MRGL risk for this potential, but forecast soundings suggest a
subsidence inversion and complex low-level shear that appear to be
negatives to severe threat. Will reconsider this threat in later
updates.

$$

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