Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 280100Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe storms capable of marginal hail, a severe wind gust
or even a brief tornado remain possible over eastern New Mexico this
evening and into west Texas overnight.

…Eastern NM into west TX…
A previously tornadic supercell over Curry county NM will continue
to become elevated and weaken as it proceeds into TX Panhandle where
temperatures are in the 30s and 40s. A narrow zone of relatively
warm and unstable air remains near and south of the warm front into
eastern NM, and will conditionally favor a supercell over the next
few hours as temperatures aloft are cold, and with ample low-level
shear in place. However, it does appear the best lift via warm
advection will continue to lift northeast of the area, reducing
chances of supercells ahead of the cold front.

With time, winds aloft will back as the upper trough nears, which
may mitigate the isolated supercell threat through less favorable
hodographs. As the cold front moves through this evening, surface
winds will veer to westerly, with more of a linear storm mode
expected through the early morning hours. Even so, strong shear
profiles may still support a few severe storms along the cold front.
A brief tornado, isolated wind gusts or marginal hail are all
possible. Overall, coverage of severe is expected to remain
isolated.

..Jewell.. 12/28/2019

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