Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 272000Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AREA AND ADJACENT EASTERN OKLAHOMA…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong thunderstorms, and possibly a brief/local severe
risk, may affect the High Plains of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico this evening and tonight.

…Discussion…
Prior outlook reasoning appears representative of the ongoing
meteorological evolution over the U.S. — such that no appreciable
changes are required.

..Goss.. 12/27/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019/

…NM/TX…
No changes have been made to the ongoing MRGL risk area. A large
upper trough over AZ will continue to progress eastward, with strong
southwesterly flow aloft across west TX and eastern NM. A surface
warm front is lifting northward across the region resulting in slow
airmass destabilization despite abundant clouds, with forecast
evening MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Most 12z CAM solutions show
a few strong storms tracking across the MRGL risk area later today –
mainly after dark. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer
shear for rotating updrafts and some risk of hail or even a brief
tornado.

$$

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