Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 262000Z – 271200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern parts of
California today and overnight across southwest Arizona and the
Texas South Plains.

…Discussion…
No changes are being made to the existing thunder areas, as prior
reasoning continues to reflect the latest expectations.

..Goss.. 12/26/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/

…Synopsis…
A closed midlevel low near the southern CA coast this morning will
move slowly eastward to southern AZ by Friday morning. Relatively
cold midlevel temperatures (-26 to -28 C at 500 mb) and associated
7-8 C/km lapse rates will support weak surface-based buoyancy near
the southern CA coast today. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible with the midlevel cold pool, primarily along a zone of
low-level convergence/ascent near and just offshore. Farther east
and overnight, weak buoyancy will develop over southern AZ and
support a threat for isolated lightning flashes along the primary
baroclinic zone and with the midlevel cold pool.

Elsewhere, a cold front will drift southward across OK and the TX
Panhandle by tonight. To the south, low-level moisture return and a
weak warm advection regime will establish from south TX into west
central TX by tonight. Weak CAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer to
the north of the front and warm advection on the nose of a 30 kt
low-level jet could support a few lightning flashes with elevated
convection the last few hours of the period across the TX South
Plains and vicinity.

$$

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