Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 261630Z – 271200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern parts of
California today and overnight across southwest Arizona and the
Texas South Plains.

A closed midlevel low near the southern CA coast this morning will
move slowly eastward to southern AZ by Friday morning. Relatively
cold midlevel temperatures (-26 to -28 C at 500 mb) and associated
7-8 C/km lapse rates will support weak surface-based buoyancy near
the southern CA coast today. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible with the midlevel cold pool, primarily along a zone of
low-level convergence/ascent near and just offshore. Farther east
and overnight, weak buoyancy will develop over southern AZ and
support a threat for isolated lightning flashes along the primary
baroclinic zone and with the midlevel cold pool.

Elsewhere, a cold front will drift southward across OK and the TX
Panhandle by tonight. To the south, low-level moisture return and a
weak warm advection regime will establish from south TX into west
central TX by tonight. Weak CAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer to
the north of the front and warm advection on the nose of a 30 kt
low-level jet could support a few lightning flashes with elevated
convection the last few hours of the period across the TX South
Plains and vicinity.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/26/2019


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