Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 251300Z – 261200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight along and
near the coast of central/southern California. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

…Coastal California…
A shortwave trough/strong polar jet will amplify/dig southeastward
off the coast of California through tonight and reinforce the mean
longwave trough over the western CONUS. In response, a surface
cyclone will deepen off the California coast in conjunction with a
southeastward-advancing frontal band.

Preceding this frontal band/offshore surface wave, moderate/adequate
moisture in conjunction with steep low/mid-level lapse rates will
support thunderstorms, primarily offshore but also into coastal
areas of central and southern California. This activity will remain
relatively isolated today, with somewhat greater coverage
tonight/early Thursday southward toward coastal SoCal/offshore
islands in conjunction with the approaching frontal band. A few
semi-organized/sustained low-topped storms could occur with small
hail/gusty winds, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Guyer.. 12/25/2019


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