Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 242000Z – 251200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight across portions
of the Southwest. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

…20Z Update..
Instability continues to gradually increase across AZ with recent
mesoanalysis estimating MUCAPE is now over 100 J/kg across all of
western AZ and over 500 J/kg across portions of south-central AZ. As
a result, potential for isolated lightning strikes within the main
band of ascent, as well as within the more cellular convection
behind the main band, persists. A few strikes also remain possible
along the northern CA coast early Christmas morning.

..Mosier.. 12/24/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2019/

A series of midlevel shortwave troughs will move across the
Southwest/CA through the period. A lead shortwave trough now over
northern Baja will eject northeastward over AZ/NM today. Recent
observations show thunderstorms across Sonora, and sufficient
low-midlevel moistening is expected today for weak buoyancy and a
threat for isolated thunderstorms farther north later today through
this evening from southern AZ to the Mogollon Rim. Very weak
midlevel convection may also occur this evening farther to the
northeast across NM, but very minimal buoyancy (MUCAPE generally
<100 J/kg) rooted above 700 mb suggests the lightning threat is too
marginal to warrant expanding the thunderstorm outlook area across
NM. Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough will approach the
northern/central CA coast late in the period. There could be
sufficient midlevel cooling and steepening of low-midlevel lapse
rates to result in weak surface-based buoyancy and a low-end threat
for lightning flashes near the coast and just offshore by early
Christmas morning.


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