Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 241630Z – 251200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight across portions
of the Southwest. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

A series of midlevel shortwave troughs will move across the
Southwest/CA through the period. A lead shortwave trough now over
northern Baja will eject northeastward over AZ/NM today. Recent
observations show thunderstorms across Sonora, and sufficient
low-midlevel moistening is expected today for weak buoyancy and a
threat for isolated thunderstorms farther north later today through
this evening from southern AZ to the Mogollon Rim. Very weak
midlevel convection may also occur this evening farther to the
northeast across NM, but very minimal buoyancy (MUCAPE generally
<100 J/kg) rooted above 700 mb suggests the lightning threat is too
marginal to warrant expanding the thunderstorm outlook area across
NM. Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough will approach the
northern/central CA coast late in the period. There could be
sufficient midlevel cooling and steepening of low-midlevel lapse
rates to result in weak surface-based buoyancy and a low-end threat
for lightning flashes near the coast and just offshore by early
Christmas morning.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/24/2019


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