Valid 140100Z – 141200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF STATES…
Organized severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and hail, will
move across western Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma late this
evening. Strong storms will also be noted across the Tennessee
Valley into the northern Gulf States.
Kansas/Oklahoma: High Plains convection that developed over eastern
CO/southwest NE has propagated southeast and matured into an
organized squall line over western KS. This squall line is taking on
bow-shaped characteristics with the leading echoes now surging
southeast at roughly 40kt. Severe wind gusts, along with very large
hail, have been observed with this MCS; although, damaging winds are
now the primary threat as it races southeast. It appears the leading
edge of the squall line will approach the OK border between 03-04z.
Have adjusted higher severe probs downstream to account for this
TN Valley/northern Gulf States: Reference:
VA/MD: Isolated strong storms linger across northern VA this
evening. This activity developed in the wake of an early-day remnant
MCS-debris field. While boundary-layer heating was minimized due to
clouds/precipitation, sufficient buoyancy remains in place for a few
strong storms for the next few hours.