Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 241200Z – 251200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur today across portions of the
Southwest. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

An upper-level cyclone will continue to move farther offshore east
of the Florida coast. Within the midsection of the country,
upper-level ridging will shift out of the Mississippi Valley and
into the Southeast. Along the West Coast, a shortwave trough
currently situated west of the Baja Peninsula will pivot to the
northeast into Arizona, eventually ejecting into central Plains. At
the surface, a weak boundary will move through Arizona by late

Isolated, relatively low-topped thunderstorm activity is possible
along/near the boundary as forcing for ascent increases across
Arizona through about mid-afternoon. While deep-layer winds will be
strong and mid-level temperatures cold, precipitation/cloud cover is
expected to limit destabilization such that only 100-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE appears likely.

..Wendt.. 12/24/2019


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