Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 232000Z – 241200Z


While severe storms are not expected, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the coastal Southeast States today in addition to
portions of southern California and southwestern Arizona.

…20Z Update…
No changes needed to the previous outlook.

..Mosier.. 12/23/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019/

Much of the previous forecast remains on track, with an upper-level
low traversing the Southeast coastal areas and a longer-wave trough
overspreading the Desert Southwest providing deep-layer ascent to
foster some potential for isolated thunderstorms.

…Southeast coastal areas…
As the warm-sector beneath an upper-level low continues to shift
east into the Atlantic, the bulk of the warm sector and associated
thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. However, marginal
buoyancy may graze the Georgia/South Carolina Coastlines, promoting
isolated thunderstorm development late in the afternoon to overnight
hours. Meanwhile, a few flashes and wind gusts may accompany
low-topped convection associated with the upper-low across parts of
northern Florida by afternoon peak heating.

…Portions of southern California into southwest Arizona…
The approach of the aforementioned mid-level trough, combined with
modest low-level moisture advection, may promote isolated
thunderstorms across parts of southern California in the late
afternoon/early evening time frame, and across west-southwestern
portions of Arizona overnight.


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