Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231300Z – 241200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
While severe storms are not expected, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the coastal Southeast States today in addition to
southern portions of California and Arizona.

…Coastal Southeast States…
An upper low centered near the southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle
border this morning will continue east-southeastward and reach the
Florida Peninsula by evening, and the nearby Atlantic waters by
early Tuesday. A cold front will continue to move eastward off the
Florida east coast early today. In proximity to the upper low, an
additional round of convection could develop over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and move into the Peninsula later this afternoon. However,
this convection will likely remain very shallow, and thus, the
prospects for lightning will be limited, particularly across the
southern half of the Peninsula. Convectively influenced gusty winds
could occur with this activity.

Regarding coastal South Carolina, the warm/moist sector should
remain focused offshore in relation to a coastal boundary and
offshore-shifting surface wave, especially given extensive ongoing
early-day precipitation over inland areas. This scenario will likely
keep the prospects for surface-based convection and any rotating
storms offshore.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2019

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