Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231200Z – 241200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are expected from central Florida into South
Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds may occur
from Tampa to Cape Canaveral during the afternoon.

The primary feature of interest today will be an upper low which
will move across the FL Panhandle and across central and northern
portions of the state. Preceding this feature early in the period, a
cold front will be near the east coast of FL, with associated
showers or thunderstorms. Any lingering severe threat from the
previous period will quickly move offshore.

Behind the front, strong cooling aloft will occur with the upper low
north of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon. Showers and shallow
thunderstorms are likely to materialize over the Gulf of Mexico, and
quickly move east across central/northern FL. This activity may
produce locally gusty winds as 30-35 kt 850 mb winds translate to
the surface. Weak instability will be the main mitigating factor,
and severe storms are not expected. Southern portions of this
activity are unlikely to contain lightning due to the midlevel
inversion south of the midlevel jet core.

Elsewhere, elevated instability associated with moisture wrapping
north of the low will support a few storms into SC, but severe
weather is not expected due to a cool low-level air mass rendering
impressive low-level shear ineffective over land.

..Jewell.. 12/23/2019


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