Valid 230100Z – 231200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
A tornado or two is possible this evening and overnight from the
Florida Keys into southeast Florida.
Southwesterly winds aloft will continue increasing overnight as the
upper low moves from MS toward the FL Panhandle. At the surface, a
cold front will approach the west coast close to 06Z, while a lobe
of low pressure develops from the Keys northeastward across southern
FL. Ahead of these features, southerly surface winds will continue
the gradual northward advection of moisture, with dewpoints near 70
F in Miami after 06Z.
An ongoing line of storms just west of the Keys as of 01Z will
evolve this evening and overnight, overspreading southern FL.
Additional, isolated storms cannot be ruled out in the moistening
air mass east of this feature as well. MUCAPE will increase into the
500-1000 J/kg overnight, with maximum effective SRH to around 300
m2/s2 near the developing surface trough. This may support a tornado
or two, likely brief, within the larger complex of storms. A locally
damaging downburst is possible as well, especially if there happens
to be a larger complex of storms.