Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 221300Z – 231200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Keys
and southern Florida this afternoon into tonight, and toward the
Florida east coast late tonight and early Monday morning. Locally
damaging winds and/or a brief tornado or two could occur.

A southern-stream closed low centered over far east Texas and
Louisiana early today will continue to deepen today as it advances
east-southeastward and reaches the southern Alabama/Florida
Panhandle border vicinity early Monday. Preceding this upper low,
moderate southwesterly winds aloft, as well as southerly
winds just off the surface, will be maintained throughout the
period, with these deep-layer winds expected to restrengthen across
the Florida Peninsula/Keys tonight as the upper system approaches.

Scattered showers/some thunderstorms will remain common early today
across a broad expanse from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into Florida
and much of the Southeast States. Across Florida, the air mass will
be cool and relatively stable for surface-based parcels for much of
the day, with an exception being the Florida Keys and eventually
other parts of south Florida later today in proximity to a warm
front. As additional moistening/destabilization occurs into tonight
in tandem with this northeastward-advancing warm front, a gradual
increase in storm potential is expected across southern Florida as
moisture and forcing for ascent increase tonight. Veering winds with
height in the low-levels may support rotating storms, and perhaps a
short-lived tornado or two aside from locally damaging winds.
Additional storms may affect the eastern Florida coast overnight,
with a tornado possible within any confluence bands where adequate
destabilization has occurred.

..Guyer/Smith.. 12/22/2019


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