Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 221200Z – 231200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Keys
and southern Florida, and toward the eastern coast into Monday
morning. A brief tornado or two will be possible.

A compact upper low with tight midlevel temperature gradient will
deepen as it moves from the Sabine River toward the western FL
Panhandle. Moderate southwesterly winds aloft, as well as southerly
winds just off the surface, will be maintained throughout the

A cold front will push east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the day, affecting the western FL Peninsula during the evening.
Initially, the air mass will be cool and relatively stable for
surface-based parcels, although elevated instability will support
general thunderstorms and rain for much of the region. A distinct
band of warm advection at 850 mb will swing north during the day
into AL and GA, and will support non-severe, elevated thunderstorms.
By evening, dewpoints in the 68-70 F range will envelop much of
southern and eastern FL, mainly south of a Cape Canaveral to Orlando

Periodic strong storms will likely be ongoing offshore southwest of
Naples and north of the Keys, with a gradual increase in storm
potential over far southern FL as moisture increases into the
evening, driven mainly by warm advection. There is uncertainty
regarding how unstable the air mass will get, but veering winds with
height in the low-levels may support rotating storms, and perhaps a
short-lived tornado or two. Additional activity may affect the
eastern FL coast later in the evening/overnight, with a tornado
possible within any potential confluence bands.

..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/22/2019


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