Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 211630Z – 221200Z


Severe storms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may
affect parts of the northeast Gulf Coast tonight.

…Gulf Coast and eastern Gulf of Mexico area through tonight…
A midlevel low over southeast OK will move slowly southeastward to
LA through early Sunday. Weak surface cyclogenesis is underway
across the east/northeast Gulf of Mexico in advance of the midlevel
low and along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected across the eastern Gulf in association
with the cyclogenesis and air mass modification/destabilization, and
some elevated convection could spread inland over the northeast Gulf
coast overnight. Weak midlevel convection and an isolated lightning
flash will be possible late in the period across northern LA with
the steeper midlevel lapse rates near the midlevel low, but minimal
buoyancy suggests that an outlook area is unnecessary. The
convection over the southeast Gulf should remain just west of Key
West through this forecast period.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/21/2019


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