Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 211300Z – 221200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe storms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may
affect parts of the Gulf Coast tonight.

…Discussion…
Prevalent high pressure and dry/stable conditions will largely
preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today and tonight.
One exception may be tonight along the Gulf Coast spanning southeast
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. A southern-stream upper low
currently centered over Oklahoma and north Texas will continue to
drift east-southeastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight. An inverted surface trough will develop over the
east-central Gulf of Mexico, providing a focus for lift along with
low-level moisture return ahead of the aforementioned upper low. The
development of weak elevated instability could support some elevated
thunderstorms by tonight inland along the Gulf Coast, although the
majority of the thunderstorms will remain over the open waters of
the Gulf of Mexico through tonight.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2019

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