Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 211200Z – 221200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms may affects parts of the north-central and
northeastern Gulf Coast Saturday evening and overnight. No severe
storms are expected.

…Synopsis…
With high pressure maintaining relatively dry and stable conditions
over the majority of the CONUS, the only area with isolated
thunderstorm potential on Saturday will be along the northern and
eastern Gulf Coast, ahead of an upper low that will drift across the
Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys late. An inverted surface
trough is forecast to develop over the east-central Gulf of Mexico,
providing a focus for lift along with low-level moisture return.
However, it is likely that the bulk of the unstable air will remain
offshore, with only weak, elevated instability threatening far
southern Alabama and Mississippi, the mouth of the Mississippi, and
the Florida Panhandle.

Given the increasing/favorable lift ahead of the upper trough,
widespread rain and a embedded thunderstorms are expected. Severe
weather is highly unlikely given the cold surface air mass.

Elsewhere, an upper trough and cold front will approach the central
and northern California coasts Saturday evening and overnight, with
bands of rain. Little in the way of instability will be present,
however, strong winds will exist above the surface, and it is not
out of the question for a few strong gusts to reach the surface
within the stronger frontal rain bands, especially at higher
elevations.

..Jewell.. 12/21/2019

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