Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 181200Z – 191200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
A few thunderstorms are possible across south Florida through midday
Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected.

…Discussion…
A cold front will move south across the Florida peninsula today.
Some storms will form along and ahead of the cold front in an
environment featuring 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The combination of
weak mid-level lapse rates, the propensity for frontal storms to be
undercut by the front, and relatively weak (25 kts) effective shear,
will limit the severe weather threat with any storms which develop
in south Florida. The front should move south of Florida by
mid-afternoon which should bring an end to thunderstorms in the
region.

Cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some shallow convection off
the Washington coast Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Any
deeper convection with better potential for lightning should remain
well offshore where relatively warm waters and cooler temperatures
aloft increase instability, but a flash or two cannot be ruled out
along the northern Washington coast by early Thursday morning.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2019

$$

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