Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 180100Z – 181200Z


A risk for a damaging gust may persist this evening over central
Florida before storms weaken.

A positive-tilt mid-level trough extending from the OH Valley to the
Ark-La-Tex will slowly move east tonight. Concurrently, a cold
front will push east into the western Atlantic from the Carolina
coastal plain and the boundary will move through northern FL. A
pre-frontal squall line will gradually move across the central part
of the FL Peninsula this evening through a moist/marginally unstable
airmass. The 00z TBW raob showed 1000 J/kg MLCAPE but a relatively
modest lapse rate profile. Additionally, only 25-30 kt flow was
observed in the lowest 4 km according to the sounding. While a
strong storm capable of a damaging gust cannot be ruled out, it
appears the risk warrants a less-than-5-percent wind hazard
highlight. Storms are forecast to continue to slowly weaken
overnight as they move into the southern third of the peninsula.

A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will encroach on the CA
coast tonight. A few lightning flashes are possible near the
immediate coast of central CA. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are
forecast tonight for a large part of contiguous U.S.

..Smith.. 12/18/2019


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