Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 172000Z – 181200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA…

…SUMMARY…
A threat of severe storms continues mainly over northern Florida and
southeast Georgia.

…Southeast GA/southern SC into northern FL…
Storms have consolidated along a line from the eastern FL Panhandle
across southeast GA, with northern parts approaching far southern
SC. The air mass remains sufficiently unstable with around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Although low-level winds will gradually veer with time
reducing low-level shear slightly, 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 and
good deep-layer shear will maintain the threat of waves along the
squall line, potentially with damaging gusts or a tornado.

Other cells are likely into north-central FL where shear is less but
where stronger heating may support a few strong updrafts with
marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 12/17/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019/

Fast west-southwesterly midlevel winds extend across the southeast
states today, with a cold front sagging across parts of FL/GA/SC.
The air mass ahead of the front is slowly moistening/destabilizing
with dewpoints climbing through the mid 60s and MUCAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg. Isolated supercells have been noted this
morning over the western FL panhandle and southwest GA. This
activity may persist through much of the afternoon, as well as some
intensification of a line of storms along the cold front. The
strongest cells may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes. Therefore have extended the SLGT risk area eastward to
the Atlantic coast of GA and north FL.

$$

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