Valid 170100Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO WESTERN ALABAMA…
Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to affect parts
of the Gulf States/Tennessee Valley tonight. A few tornadoes remain
possible along with damaging winds.
…Gulf States/Tennessee Valley…
Positive-tilt trough continues to settle southeast with attendant
height falls evident across the Mid-South/OH Valley region. In
response to this feature, considerable amount of convection has
developed within a 50-100 mi corridor from southern LA – central MS
– northern AL – middle TN. Numerous long-lived supercells, some
tornadic, have been noted within this corridor but recent trends
suggest a more linear mode evolving, especially north of I-20. Over
the last hour or so, more discrete supercells have congregated
farther south across southern MS where greater buoyancy resides.
Latest radar data suggests several long-lived supercells will track
across southeastern portions of ww701 into west-central AL. This
cluster of storms will necessitate focusing the highest severe probs
along this corridor. Tornadoes remain possible with these storms.
Have opted to increase severe probs a bit into western portions of
GA to account for this activity maintaining some intensity toward
the end of the period.
Farther north, well-defined bow-type squall line has evolved along
the TN/AL border moving east at roughly 45kt. While an embedded
tornado can not be ruled out with this organized bow, the primary
severe threat should be winds.