Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 170100Z – 171200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO WESTERN ALABAMA…

…SUMMARY…
Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to affect parts
of the Gulf States/Tennessee Valley tonight. A few tornadoes remain
possible along with damaging winds.

…Gulf States/Tennessee Valley…

Positive-tilt trough continues to settle southeast with attendant
height falls evident across the Mid-South/OH Valley region. In
response to this feature, considerable amount of convection has
developed within a 50-100 mi corridor from southern LA – central MS
– northern AL – middle TN. Numerous long-lived supercells, some
tornadic, have been noted within this corridor but recent trends
suggest a more linear mode evolving, especially north of I-20. Over
the last hour or so, more discrete supercells have congregated
farther south across southern MS where greater buoyancy resides.
Latest radar data suggests several long-lived supercells will track
across southeastern portions of ww701 into west-central AL. This
cluster of storms will necessitate focusing the highest severe probs
along this corridor. Tornadoes remain possible with these storms.
Have opted to increase severe probs a bit into western portions of
GA to account for this activity maintaining some intensity toward
the end of the period.

Farther north, well-defined bow-type squall line has evolved along
the TN/AL border moving east at roughly 45kt. While an embedded
tornado can not be ruled out with this organized bow, the primary
severe threat should be winds.

..Darrow.. 12/17/2019

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