Valid 151630Z – 161200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated through tonight.
…Mid-South to OH Valley…
Isolated to perhaps scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected,
from late evening through early morning, within a persistent zone of
low-level warm advection. The most probable corridor will be from
western TN to central KY where weakly buoyant elevated parcels
should be present north of a pronounced elevated mixed layer over
the south-central states/Gulf Coast region. While speed shear
through the cloud-bearing layer would be a contributing factor to
hail production, the weak buoyancy along with shear vectors aligned
with the orientation of isentropic ascent suggest that elevated
supercell development is unlikely amid a cluster mode.
…Arklamiss to Sabine Valley…
Surface-based instability will become prevalent by 12Z in concert
with 700-mb capping slowly weakening as height falls gradually
increase late in the period with a shortwave trough reaching the lee
of the southern Rockies. This morning’s guidance still suggests that
any risk for sustained surface-based storms will hold off until
after 12Z on D2.