Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151200Z – 161200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe weather is not anticipated through early Monday morning.

…Discussion…
Surface high pressure will dominate most of the CONUS with the
exception of a weak area of low-pressure in the southern High Plains
which will slowly drift eastward through the period. Ahead of this
surface low, northward moisture advection will bring 60 F dewpoints
as far north as Memphis, TN by the end of the period. Weak height
rises and a moderately strong capping inversion should limit
warm-sector convective development Sunday afternoon.

850mb flow will increase across the mid-Mississippi Valley late this
afternoon and into the evening which will lead to strong warm air
advection across a warm frontal zone. It appears some weak
instability may develop along and north of the warm front which may
be sufficient for a few storms late this evening and overnight.
However, the weak instability should limit the overall severe
weather threat until after 12Z Monday.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2019

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