Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA…

…SUMMARY…
A marginal risk for strong to severe storms may persist during the
morning across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula before
the threat dissipates by late morning.

…FL Peninsula…
A mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Appalachians this
morning will quickly move northeast into New England and the western
Atlantic by early Sunday. Before this disturbance and large-scale
forcing for ascent becomes substantially displaced from FL, a
lingering risk for thunderstorms will maximize during the morning
from west-central FL northeast to near Cape Canaveral. A seasonably
moist/marginally unstable airmass, characterized by upper 60s to
around 70 degrees F dewpoints, and sufficiently strong vertical
speed shear will yield a conditional risk for a few invigorated
storms (12-15 UTC). A brief tornado cannot be ruled out along with
an isolated damaging gust before veering low-level flow and
weakening convergence lead to storm weakening/lower storm coverage
by midday from Lake Okeechobee southward.

..Smith/Bentley.. 12/14/2019

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