Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 140100Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA…

…SUMMARY…
Several severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening into the
overnight from Tampa Bay northward into north Florida.

…Northern half of the FL Peninsula/coastal GA/SC…
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the lower
MS Valley and this feature will move east into the southern
Appalachians by Saturday morning. Surface cyclogenesis will occur
over the coastal waters east of the Mid-Atlantic states overnight
while a cold front pushes east across north FL.

The 00z raobs over the Slight-Risk area are weakly buoyant and low-
to mid-level flow was relatively modest. However, as the mid-level
wave approaches tonight, tropospheric flow will substantially
increase and conditionally support storm organization. A few line
segments and potentially a supercell or two will probably evolve on
the north edge of the primary warm sector draped across north FL. A
separate area may evolve near the west coast of the FL Peninsula
late overnight as storms move onshore from the Gulf shelf waters.
Damaging gusts and a tornado or two are the main risks with the
strongest storms.

..Smith.. 12/14/2019

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