Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 131200Z – 141200Z


Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and a couple
of tornadoes are possible over northern Florida into southeast
Georgia mainly later this evening into tonight.

…Central and Northern Florida into southeast Georgia…

The next in a series of shortwave troughs accompanied by a strong
upper jet will amplify over the Gulf Coast region this evening as it
moves into the base of the synoptic trough. A downstream warm front
will advance inland along the Gulf Coast into northern FL and
southern GA with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. However, only modest
instability is expected in warm sector with 800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE due
to weak mid-level lapse rates. In wake of lead shortwave trough
moving through early today, a general decrease in thunderstorm
coverage is expected in this region during the day. However, forcing
for ascent attending the next upstream shortwave trough will likely
contribute to intensification of the low-level jet and redevelopment
of storms in vicinity of the warm front and pre-frontal confluent
zone later this evening. This activity will spread east through
northern FL and southern GA tonight. Wind profiles will strengthen
with 0-1 km storm relative helicity increasing to 150-250 m2/s2
along with 40 kt effective bulk shear. Storms developing in this
environment will likely be near surface based with potential for a
few bowing segments and supercells capable of isolated damaging wind
and a couple of tornadoes.

..Dial/Bentley.. 12/13/2019


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