Valid 101200Z – 111200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday across the contiguous
Well-defined upper vort/low, centered just south of the
international border west of ELP, is forecast to deamplify and shift
east across TX during the day1 period. With large-scale high-level
confluence expected to focus over the mid-South, surface cold front
will be forced off the Gulf/Southeast coasts as high pressure builds
across lower latitudes. This flow regime should prevent true
maritime tropical air mass from advancing inland ahead of the front
and subsequent moisture/instability is expected to remain rather
weak through the period. As a result, majority of convection will
likely be somewhat elevated and likely post frontal in nature.
Additionally, thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated and the
threat for severe is low given the weak buoyancy.