Valid 100100Z – 101200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Thunderstorm threat has been extended to include portions of
south-central Texas later tonight.
Well-defined upper low near the AZ/Mexican border continues to move
east-southeast toward the Big Bend region of west TX. Scattered
thunderstorms have been common beneath the cold upper trough,
especially over southern AZ into southwest NM. 00z sounding from TUS
exhibited appreciable SBCAPE (~450 J/kg), while downstream sounding
at EPZ was notably stable. Even so, convective threat is expected to
spread/develop east into TX overnight along poleward side of surface
front that should advance into the coastal Plain by sunrise. Weak
elevated buoyancy should prove adequate for a few thunderstorms as
large-scale forcing spreads into TX late.